Third Wednesday Jazz Series — CIS Case Study | Duncanville Arts Foundation

CIS Case Study  |  Foundation-Seeded Program  |  Stage 1: Intake

Third Wednesday Jazz Series

Arts Junction at Old Rail Station  —  Monthly  —  Third Wednesday of Each Month


Methodological Note

This program is Foundation-seeded. The Foundation serves simultaneously as proposer and evaluator. This dual role is disclosed in all CIS reporting derived from this program. Findings from this activation are tagged as Foundation-originated in the CIS data system and noted as such in any published output.

Proposer

Duncanville Arts Foundation

Discipline

Jazz / Live Music

Format

Ticketed  |  Seated

Target Capacity

80 seats per activation

First Activation

June 18, 2026

Frequency

Monthly  |  Third Wednesday

Pipeline Status

Stage 1: Intake

Program Description

The Third Wednesday Jazz Series is a monthly live music activation at Arts Junction at Old Rail Station. Each activation presents a jazz ensemble to a seated audience of 80, on the third Wednesday of the month, in the 4,000 sq ft event space with full-service kitchen access. The series runs on a fixed monthly schedule to build audience habit and generate longitudinal repeat participation data across the full six-activation CII measurement cycle.

The Foundation is seeding this program internally for two reasons. First, a jazz series is well-suited to the CIS measurement architecture: it generates clear pre-commitment data through advance ticket sales, produces a high-concentration local audience, and offers strong substitution signal because jazz audiences frequently travel to regional venues in Dallas, Fort Worth, and Addison. Second, a Foundation-seeded program creates a documented baseline activation against which external proposer performance can be calibrated.

Pipeline Stage and Development Plan

The program enters the pipeline at Stage 1 (Intake) with Foundation staff as the proposer of record. Foundation-seeded programs complete the same five-workshop curriculum as external proposers for methodological consistency and to ensure the resulting planning documents are CIS-compliant.

Stage Required Action Owner Target Date
1. Intake Concept documented. Intake record created. Pipeline entry confirmed. Foundation March 2026
2. Develop Complete five-workshop curriculum. Produce: Audience Map, Pricing Model, 30-Day Commitment Campaign, Production Checklist, Financial Tracking Template. Foundation / Program Lead April — May 2026
3. Validate Achieve 100% pre-commitment of projected costs through advance ticket sales. Validation campaign duration: 30 days minimum. No activation proceeds without 100% commitment. Foundation May 1 — May 31, 2026
4. Activate Launch Activation 1 at Arts Junction. Collect all five CII data streams. Deploy substitution survey at point of activation. Foundation June 18, 2026
5. Graduate Assess CII trajectory after six activations (maximum). Apply graduation determination per CIS v2.0 thresholds. Foundation December 2026 — January 2027

Pre-Commitment Calculation

The 100% pre-commitment threshold requires that all projected costs be committed through advance ticket sales before the activation proceeds. The cost baseline below must be confirmed during Workshop 2 (Pricing Strategy) and Workshop 5 (Financial Management). All figures are planning estimates pending artist and production confirmation.

Cost Baseline — Activation 1 (Estimate)

Cost Item Basis Estimated Cost
Artist / Ensemble FeeMarket rate: jazz quartet, local/regional, 90-minute setTBD at Develop stage
Sound / A/VVenue sound system supplement, engineerTBD at Develop stage
Venue / OperationalArts Junction access, setup, breakdown, staffingTBD at Develop stage
Ticketing Platform FeeTypically 3–5% of gross ticket revenueTBD at Develop stage
MarketingDigital promotion, print, email campaignTBD at Develop stage
Contingency (10%)Per CIS v2.0 financial management protocolTBD at Develop stage
Total Projected Cost 100% pre-commitment target TBD at Develop stage

Pre-Commitment Math

Once costs are confirmed at the Develop stage, the following formula determines the required ticket price and validation target.

CII Pre-Commitment = Total Advance Revenue ÷ Total Projected Cost × 100
Variable Formula Value
CapacityFixed80 seats
Total Cost (C)Sum of all cost items aboveTBD
Minimum Ticket PriceC ÷ 80TBD
Pre-Commitment Target100% of C through advance ticket salesTBD
Validation Window30 days minimum prior to activation dateMay 1 – May 31, 2026
Validation DeadlineIf 100% not achieved by this date, activation does not proceedMay 31, 2026

CII Measurement Plan

The Cultural Investment Index score for each activation is computed from five factors. The measurement plan below specifies the data collection method, instrument, and timing for each factor as applied to the Third Wednesday Jazz Series.

F1 Weight: 30%

Pre-Commitment Achievement

Source: Ticketing platform — total advance sales ÷ 100% cost threshold. Closes at validation deadline.

F2 Weight: 25%

Duncanville Resident Share

Source: ZIP code at checkout + door survey Q1. Targets ZIP 75116, 75137, 75138. Collected at each activation.

F3 Weight: 20%

Substitution Intent

Source: Paper survey Q2–Q3 at point of activation. Minimum 20% response rate required for F3 to be scored.

F4 Weight: 15%

Repeat Participation

Source: Ticketing platform repeat-purchase records. Activation 1 receives default score of 50 per CIS v2.0 protocol. Scored from Activation 2 onward.

F5 Weight: 10%

Adjacent Business Lift

Source: Arts Junction tenant POS data. Activation-night volume vs. average of four baseline Wednesdays within 60 days preceding each activation.

Baseline Night Schedule — Activation 1

Four baseline Wednesdays must be identified within the 60 days preceding June 18, 2026, excluding holidays and private events, to establish the pre-activation tenant traffic average (CIS v2.0, Section 6.5).

# Date Day Exclusions Check Status
BL-1April 22, 2026WednesdayConfirm no holiday or private eventTo be confirmed
BL-2April 29, 2026WednesdayConfirm no holiday or private eventTo be confirmed
BL-3May 6, 2026WednesdayConfirm no holiday or private eventTo be confirmed
BL-4May 13, 2026WednesdayConfirm no holiday or private eventTo be confirmed

Six-Activation Schedule

The CIS measures programs across a maximum of six activations before a graduation determination is applied. Validation campaigns for each subsequent activation open 30 days before each activation date. The graduation determination is applied within 30 days of the final CII score.

# Activation Date Validation Opens Validation Closes CII Scored By Notes
1 Jun 18, 2026 May 1, 2026 May 31, 2026 Jun 25, 2026 F4 defaults to 50. Baseline nights: Apr 22, 29, May 6, 13.
2 Jul 16, 2026 Jun 1, 2026 Jun 30, 2026 Jul 23, 2026 F4 scored from Activation 1 repeat data. Baseline: 4 Wednesdays in June.
3 Aug 20, 2026 Jul 1, 2026 Jul 31, 2026 Aug 27, 2026 Mid-cycle review. Factor-level trajectory analysis recommended.
4 Sep 17, 2026 Aug 1, 2026 Aug 31, 2026 Sep 24, 2026 Four baseline Wednesdays in August.
5 Oct 15, 2026 Sep 1, 2026 Sep 30, 2026 Oct 22, 2026 Four baseline Wednesdays in September.
6 Nov 19, 2026 Oct 1, 2026 Oct 31, 2026 Nov 26, 2026 Final activation. Graduation determination applied within 30 days of final CII score.
Graduation Determination December 2026 — CII trajectory reviewed across all six activations. Determination applied per CIS v2.0, Section 7.

Audience Development Framework

The following audience segments are preliminary targets identified at intake. The Audience Map deliverable (Workshop 1) will refine these segments with channel-level outreach plans and geographic targeting tied to ZIP codes 75116, 75137, and 75138 (CIS v2.0, Section 4.2).

Segment Profile Geographic Target Est. Reach CII Relevance
Primary Duncanville households, ages 35–65, household income $60K+, existing interest in live music ZIP 75116, 75137, 75138 ~500 households F2 (Resident Share), F3 (Substitution Intent)
Secondary DeSoto, Cedar Hill, and Midlothian households with existing jazz interest Adjacent ZIP codes ~300 households F1 (Pre-Commitment velocity), F5 (Adjacent Lift)
Out-of-City Regional jazz listeners currently attending venues in Dallas, Addison, and Fort Worth Regional — no ZIP constraint ~200 attendees F3: strongest substitution signal if attending from out-of-city alternatives

Substitution Signal Hypothesis

Jazz audiences in this market have a documented pattern of traveling to regional venues (The Kessler, Jazz at Bishops Arts District, Scat Jazz Lounge in Fort Worth) for live jazz experiences not available locally. A high F3 score on this series — indicating that attendees would have traveled outside Duncanville in the absence of this activation — would constitute strong spending retention signal. This hypothesis is tested directly through the substitution survey administered at each activation.

CII Scoring Worksheet — Activation 1 Template

Factor scores are recorded after each activation. The composite CII score is calculated using the weighted formula from CIS v2.0, Section 6. This worksheet is pre-populated with the measurement protocol for Activation 1.

CII = (F1 × 0.30) + (F2 × 0.25) + (F3 × 0.20) + (F4 × 0.15) + (F5 × 0.10)
Factor Weight Raw Data Required Score (0–100) Weighted Score
F1: Pre-Commitment Achievement 0.30 Total advance ticket revenue ÷ total projected cost × 100 _____ _____ × 0.30
F2: Duncanville Resident Share 0.25 Tickets from ZIP 75116/75137/75138 ÷ total tickets sold × 100 _____ _____ × 0.25
F3: Substitution Intent 0.20 Survey respondents selecting out-of-city alternative ÷ total respondents × 100. Minimum 20% response rate required. _____ _____ × 0.20
F4: Repeat Participation 0.15 Activation 1 default: score = 50 per CIS v2.0 protocol. 50 50 × 0.15 = 7.5
F5: Adjacent Business Lift 0.10 Activation-night tenant POS ÷ average of 4 baseline nights − 1 × 100. Scored on 0–100 rubric. _____ _____ × 0.10
CII Composite Score 1.00 Sum of all five weighted scores _____ F1+F2+F3+F4+F5

Graduation Thresholds (CIS v2.0, Section 7)

CII Score Range Determination Action
70 – 100 Graduation Candidate Program evaluated for transition to permanent commercial placement in Duncanville. Subject to weight sensitivity review.
50 – 69 Development Support Program continues with additional structured activation cycles. Factor-level analysis identifies areas for improvement.
Below 50 Redesign or Sunset Program enters redesign or sunset review. Findings documented as evidence of conditions at which this activation type reached the validation boundary.

Open Items — Required Before Validation Opens

The following decisions and documents must be completed during the Develop stage before the validation campaign opens on May 1, 2026.

# Item Owner Required By
1 Confirm artist or ensemble. Negotiate fee and execute performance agreement. Foundation / Program Lead April 15, 2026
2 Confirm sound and A/V vendor. Execute service agreement. Foundation April 15, 2026
3 Complete cost baseline and confirm 100% pre-commitment target amount. Foundation (Workshop 2 deliverable) April 30, 2026
4 Select and configure ticketing platform. Enable ZIP code capture at checkout. Foundation (Workshop 3 deliverable) April 30, 2026
5 Finalize substitution survey instrument. Print for activation-night administration. Foundation May 15, 2026
6 Identify and confirm four baseline Wednesdays. Coordinate POS data access with Arts Junction tenants. Foundation April 22, 2026 (BL-1 date)
7 Launch 30-day validation campaign. Monitor pre-commitment velocity weekly. Foundation May 1, 2026
8 Make go/no-go determination. Proceed if 100% committed; document and archive if not. Foundation Executive Director May 31, 2026

Referenced Documents

  • Thompson, Ron. Cultural Investment Strategy, Version 2.0. Duncanville Arts Foundation, 2026.
  • Arts Junction Year 1 Calendar, Section 4 (Baseline Night Assignments). Duncanville Arts Foundation, February 2026.
  • CIS Course Syllabus: Cultural Activation Producer Certificate. Duncanville Arts Foundation, 2026.
  • Appendix A: Intake Form and Proposer Guidelines. Duncanville Arts Foundation, 2026.